The politics of Venezuela are conducted under what is nominally a federal presidential republic, but is in practice an authoritarian system of government.^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4] Prior to the early 1990s, Venezuela was considered an unusually long-standing and stable liberal democracy in Latin America, having transitioned to democracy in 1958.^[1]^[2]^[5] According to the V-Dem Democracy indices Venezuela was in 2023 the third least electoral democratic country in Latin America.^[3]^[4]

After the victory of socialist populist Hugo Chávez in the 1998 presidential election, Venezuela gradually underwent democratic backsliding before transitioning to an authoritarian system of government where political and civil rights are not protected, and elections are not free and fair.^[6]^[1]^[5]^[7]^[8]^[9] Under Chávez's rule and later under the rule of his successor Nicolás Maduro, power has been concentrated in the hands of the executive, institutional checks and balances have been undermined, independent media have been repressed, and opposition forces have been marginalized in governing institutions, such as congress, courts, oversight agencies, the state-owned petroleum company (PDVSA), and the military.^[1]^[2]^[10]^[7]

Politics are polarized between supporters of Maduro, organized as the United Socialist Party (PSUV) and the Great Patriotic Pole, and several opposition parties. Opposition parties and opposition candidates have regularly been banned from contesting elections.^[1] At other times, opposition parties have boycotted national elections, citing their undemocratic nature.^[1]

The PSUV was created in 2007, uniting a number of smaller parties supporting Chávez's Bolivarian Revolution with his Fifth Republic Movement. PSUV and its forerunners have held the presidency since 1998, and the legislature during most of that time. The Democratic Unity Roundtable (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática, MUD), created in 2008, unites much of the opposition (A New Era (UNT), Project Venezuela, Justice First, Movement for Socialism (Venezuela) and others). Chávez died in office in early 2013 and was succeeded by Maduro (initially as interim President, before narrowly winning the 2013 Venezuelan presidential election).

Parties and leaders

Governing party

United Socialist Party of Venezuela or PSUV – (Nicolás Maduro), partially recognized. Up to 60 countries, including United States and the European Union have recognized Juan Guaidó (MUD) as the President of Venezuela. As of 2021, the European Union no longer recognizes Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela.^[11]

Non-governing parties

A New Time or UNT – (Manuel Rosales)
Brave People's Alliance or ABP – (Richard Blanco)
Christian Democrats or COPEI – Juan Carlos Alvarado
Coalition of opposition parties –The Democratic Unity Table or MUD – (Jose Luis Cartaya)
Communist Party of Venezuela or PCV – (Oscar Figuera)
Democratic Action or AD – (Henry Ramos Allup)
Fatherland for All or PPT – (Rafael Uzcategui)
For Social Democracy or PODEMOS – (Didalco Antonio Bolivar Groterol)
Justice First or PJ – (Julio Borges)
Movement Toward Socialism or MAS – (Segundo Melendaz)
Popular Will or VP – (Leopoldo Lopez)
Progressive Wave or AP – (Henri Falcon)
The Radical Cause or La Causa R – (Americo De Grazia)
Venezuelan Progressive Movement or MPV – (Simon Calzadilla)
Venezuela Project or PV – (Henrique Fernando Salas Feo)^[12]

History

Venezuelan politics was characterized by military rule for much of its post-independence history.^[13] From independence until 1956, Venezuela had 24 constitutions.^[13] These constitutions were frequently established by winners after successful revolts.^[13]

Romulo Gallegos's election as president in 1947 made him the first freely elected president in Venezuela's history.^[13] He was removed from power by military officers in the 1948 Venezuelan coup.^[13]

1958–1999

Background to the current political landscapes is the development of democracy in Venezuela during the twentieth century, in which Democratic Action (AD^x or Acción Democrática in Spanish, founded in 1941) and its predecessors played an important role in the early years. Democratic Action led the government during Venezuela's first democratic period (1945–1948). After an intervening decade of dictatorship (1948–1958) and the fall of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez^[14] saw AD^x excluded from power, four Venezuelan presidents came from Democratic Action from the 1960s to the 1990s. This period, known as the "Fourth Republic", is marked by the development of the 1958 Punto Fijo Pact between the major parties (originally including the Democratic Republican Union, which later dwindled in significance).^{[citation needed]}^[15]^[16]

By the end of the 1990s, however, the now two-party system's credibility was almost nonexistent.^[14] This was mostly because of the corruption and poverty that Venezuelans experienced as oil wealth poured in during the 1970s and the debt crisis developed during the 1980s. Democratic Action's last president (Carlos Andrés Pérez) was impeached for corruption in 1993 and spent two years under house arrest as a result. The other main traditional party Copei, provided two Venezuelan presidents (Rafael Caldera, 1969–1974, and Luis Herrera Campins, 1979–1983). Confidence in the traditional parties collapsed enough that Rafael Caldera won the 1993 presidential election with about 30% of the vote, representing a new electoral coalition National Convergence. By 1998, support for Democratic Action and COPEI had fallen still further, and Hugo Chávez, a political outsider, won the 1998 election.^[17]^[18]

1999–2013

Chávez launched what he called the "Bolivarian Revolution" and fulfilled an election promise by calling a Constituent Assembly in 1999, which drafted the new Constitution of Venezuela. Chávez was granted executive power by the National Assembly to rule by decree multiple times throughout his tenure,^[19]^[20]^[21] passing hundreds of laws. Chávez ruled Venezuela by decree in 2000,^[22] 2001,^[22] 2004,^[23] 2005,^[23] 2006,^[23] 2007,^[24] 2008,^[22]^[24] 2010,^[22]^[25] 2011^[22]^[25] and 2012.^[22]^[25] The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela, PSUV) was created in 2007, uniting a number of smaller parties supporting Hugo Chávez's Bolivarian Revolution with Chávez's Fifth Republic Movement. The Democratic Unity Roundtable (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática, MUD), created in 2008, united much of the opposition (A New Era (UNT), Project Venezuela, Justice First, Movement for Socialism (Venezuela) and others). In 2008, the government expelled the US-based Human Rights Watch,^[26] which was criticizing the government's Human rights record. Hugo Chávez, the central figure of the Venezuelan political landscape since his election to the presidency in 1998 as a political outsider, died in office in early 2013 after a long struggle with cancer. Nearing his death, Chávez expressed his intention that his vice president would succeed him.^[27] Chavez was succeeded by Nicolás Maduro, his vice president, initially as interim President, before he narrowly won the 2013 Venezuelan presidential election.^{[citation needed]}

2013–Present

Nicolás Maduro has been president of Venezuela from 2013 to the present. His rule has been marked by a continuation of Bolivarian socialist populist policies (at least until 2020), but also by a severe economic crisis -- hyperinflation (53,798,500% between 2016 and April 2019),^[28] escalating hunger,^[29] disease, crime and mortality rates,^[30] and mass emigration (almost 5 million from the country as of 2019).^[31] Extrajudicial killings of opposition by government forces are reported (by the United Nations) to include 6800 deaths as of 2019.^[32]

The crisis has been variously blamed on low oil prices in early 2015;^[33] on an "economic war" on Venezuelan socialism^[34] waged by international sanctions, and the country's business elite;^[35] and on "years of economic mismanagement, and corruption",^[35] including a lack of maintenance and investment in oil production.^[30]

2013

On 14 April 2013 elections were held between Nicolás Maduro and Henrique Capriles Radonski, opposition leader and co founder of the political party, Primero Justicia. The Venezuelan election agency announced that Maduro won with 50.8 percent of the vote, the smallest presidential win margin since the 1968 election.^[36] Opposition forces said that Henrique Capriles Radonski actually won by close to 300,000 votes and proposed evidence of voter fraud.^[36] Capriles demanded a recount that in June reaffirmed Maduro as the victor. These results sparked subsequent demonstrations and protests by those who said the recount process was also illegitimate.^[37] Maduro and his government responded with suppression of the opposition that resulted in hundreds of arrests, that Maduro claimed to be in defense of a coup he was facing.^[38]

Maduro attempted to continue the Chavismo policies. Like Chávez, Nicolás Maduro has ruled by decree multiple times since he was elected in April 2013. President Maduro has ruled Venezuela by decree for the majority of the period from 19 November 2013^[39] through 2017.^[40]^[41]^[42]^[43]^[44] Maduro has not achieved the same level of popularity that Chávez had during his presidency, demonstrated by the narrow early presidential election win. Many attribute Maduro's failure to continue the same populism model successfully to his lack of charisma that Chávez capitalized on. Chávez's opposition reported to still have large love and respect for Chávez during his presidency, Eric Olsen, deputy director of the Latin American Program at the Wilson Center reports.^[45] Olsen notes that this was not the same case with Maduro, who clearly lacks the same amount of captivating characteristics.^[45]

2015

2015 was a strong year for the MUD opposition, taking two-thirds of the congressional sets, a super majority. This was the first time in 16 years that PSUV did not have the majority in congress and this was not due to low voter turnout, as it was at 74.3%.^[46] Henrique Capriles a former MUD presidential candidate and the opposition coalition leader, Jesus Torrealba marked this as a change in the nation's history encouraging celebration with Torrealba stating, "Venezuela wanted a change and that change came. A new majority expressed itself and sent a clear and resounding message."^[46] Maduro stated in his televised response, "We have come with our morality and our ethics to recognize these adverse results, to accept them and to tell our Venezuela, The Constitution and democracy have triumphed", and later said "In Venezuela the opposition has not won ... For now, a counterrevolution that is at our doorstep has won".^[47]

2017

The strong performance by the opposition led to the reduction of the legislative powers due to the judiciary's increased scope and politicization. The Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), controlled by the PSUV, invalidated three deputies' elections from the opposition. When this ruling was not accepted by the Assembly, its powers were stripped.^[48] By 2017, the old legislative body was dismissed and transformed into the New Constituent National Assembly.^[49] This was similar to the Constituent Assembly in 1999, having power to change the constitution and dismantle pre-existing officials and/or the bodies themselves.^[50] The members of the Constituent Assembly were chosen in July 2017, during elections that were largely boycotted by the opposition, with accusations of illegitimacy.^[49]

2020

In 2020, news reports described a loosening of many socialist/redistributive economic policies—price and currency controls, stringent labor laws—by the Maduro government, along with an rapprochement with members of the capitalist community—especially Lorenzo Mendoza of the Empresas Polar conglomerate who is no longer denounced as a "thief," a "parasite" and a "traitor". Changes such as the return of agricultural land and "dozens of companies" to private management have allowed the government to survive economic sanctions (though economic production and employment is still greatly reduced), and have proceeded in exchange for an abandonment of political opposition by Mendoza.^[51] Another result of the economic liberalization is that erstwhile socialist allies of Maduro's government who began to protest corruption and the "extravagant lives flaunted by the government's cronies in supermarkets stocked with expensive imports and luxury car showrooms", have become victims to the same security apparatus that have attacked Maduro's opponents on the right—they have been denounced as traitors, arrested (leaders of the Communist and Tupamaro parties), beaten and sometimes assassinated (the fate of radio host José Carmelo Bislick).^[52]

Miscellaneous

Venezuela abolished the death penalty in 1863, making it the country where this practice has been outlawed the longest.^[53]^[54]

There is a history of tension between church and state in the country. The Catholic Church has accused Chavez of concentrating power in his own hands. In 2009, in the Catholic Church's Easter address to the nation, the bishops said the country's democracy was in "serious danger of collapse."^[55]

Elections

Venezuela elects at a national level the President of Venezuela as head of state and head of government and a unicameral federal legislature. The President of Venezuela is elected for a six-year term by direct election plurality voting and is eligible for re-election since the 2009 Venezuelan constitutional referendum) The National Assembly (Asamblea Nacional) has 165 members (diputados), elected for five-year terms. Elections also take place at state level and local level.

On 25 April 2023, representatives from 19 nations, including the European Union, attended a conference that was intended to rekindle negotiations between Nicolás Maduro's government in Venezuela and the opposition political parties, but it had no noticeable impact.[1]

Latest elections

Most recent elections:^{[citation needed]}

municipal: 2017 Venezuelan municipal elections
parliamentary: 2015 Venezuelan parliamentary election
regional: 2017 Venezuelan regional elections
presidential: 2013 Venezuelan presidential election
constituent assembly: 2017 Venezuelan Constituent Assembly election

References

Gamboa, Laura, ed. (2022), ""Chávez Vete Ya": The Erosion of Democracy in Venezuela", Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy, Cambridge University Press, pp. 98–128, doi:10.1017/9781009164085.004, ISBN 978-1-009-16408-5, Up until the 1990s, Venezuela was one of the longest-running and most stable uninterrupted liberal democracies in Latin America. Today, it is an authoritarian regime. In nineteen years, Hugo Chávez and his successor, Nicolás Maduro, managed to destroy the system of checks and balances, end free and fair elections, and terminate political rights and civil liberties. The government has delayed and canceled elections, circumvented the authority of the elected legislature, imprisoned political opponents without trial, used lethal force against protesters, and banned opposition parties.
Roberts, Kenneth M. (2012), Mudde, Cas; Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal (eds.), "Populism and democracy in Venezuela under Hugo Chávez", Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy?, Cambridge University Press, pp. 136–159, doi:10.1017/cbo9781139152365.008, ISBN 978-1-107-02385-7
V-Dem Institute (2023). "The V-Dem Dataset". Retrieved 14 October 2023.
"Venezuela profile - Timeline". BBC News. 19 September 2012. Retrieved 30 May 2024.
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Handlin, Samuel, ed. (2017), "Democratic Erosion in Venezuela, Representative Democracy in Brazil", State Crisis in Fragile Democracies: Polarization and Political Regimes in South America, Cambridge University Press, pp. 136–172, doi:10.1017/9781108233682.005, ISBN 978-1-108-41542-2
Corrales, Javier (2015). "The Authoritarian Resurgence: Autocratic Legalism in Venezuela". Journal of Democracy.
Boersner, Adriana (2021). "The Path Toward Authoritarianism in Venezuela". Oxford Bibliographies.
Corrales, Javier (2024), "Venezuela's Autocratization, 1999–2021", When Democracy Breaks, Oxford University Press, pp. 327–350, doi:10.1093/oso/9780197760789.003.0012, ISBN 978-0-19-776078-9
Brewer-Carías, Allan R. (2010). Dismantling Democracy in Venezuela: The Chávez Authoritarian Experiment. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-139-49235-5.
"EU states no longer recognise Guaido as Venezuela's interim president". Reuters. 25 January 2021.
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Lott, Leo B. (1956). "Executive Power in Venezuela". American Political Science Review. 50 (2): 422–441. doi:10.2307/1951677. ISSN 0003-0554. JSTOR 1951677. S2CID 143931136.
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Mejia, Jorge Steven (12 September 2018). "Venezuela in Crisis: A Backgrounder". Elements. 14. doi:10.6017/eurj.v14i1.10333.
Wilpert, Gregory; Azzellini, Dario (April 2009). Venezuela, Exclusionary Democracy and Resistance 1958-1998. pp. 1–6. doi:10.1002/9781405198073.wbierp1522. ISBN 978-1-4051-8464-9.
"Venezuela's Chavez Era". Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 30 May 2024.
"Venezuela: political parties | Think Tank | European Parliament". www.europarl.europa.eu. Retrieved 30 May 2024.
"Historia de Venezuela en Imágenes. Capítulo VIII 1973 /1983. La Gran Venezuela". La experiencia democrática 1958 / 1998 (in Spanish). Fundación Polar. Archived from the original on 6 February 2007. Retrieved 21 January 2007.
"El tema: Historia democrática venezolana" (in Spanish). Globovisión. 28 November 2006. Archived from the original on 7 February 2007. Retrieved 21 January 2007.
"Ramón José Velásquez Mújica" (in Spanish). Centro de Investigación de Relaciones Internacionales y desarrollo. 21 September 2006. Retrieved 21 January 2007.
"Venezuela grants Chavez power to rule by decree". Daily Nation. 18 December 2010. Archived from the original on 12 May 2016. Retrieved 12 May 2016.
Carroll, Rory (5 December 2008). "A family affair". The Guardian. Retrieved 12 May 2016.
"Rule by decree passed for Chavez". BBC News. 19 January 2007. Retrieved 12 May 2016.
"Hugo Chavez Fast Facts". CNN. 16 July 2013. Retrieved 12 May 2016.
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"Venezuela sets post-Chavez poll date". BBC News. 10 March 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2018.
"BCV admits hyperinflation of 53,798,500% since 2016". Venezuela Al Dia (in Spanish). 28 May 2019. Archived from the original on 29 May 2019. Retrieved 5 June 2019.
"One in three Venezuelans not getting enough to eat, UN finds". The Guardian. 24 February 2020. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
Larmer, Brook (1 November 2018). "What 52,000 Percent Inflation Can Do to a Country". The New York Times. New York Times. Retrieved 2 November 2018.
"Venezuelan Migration: The 4,500-Kilometer Gap Between Desperation and Opportunity". World Bank.org. 26 November 2019. Retrieved 20 November 2020.
"Venezuela Forces Killed Thousands, Then Covered It Up, U.N. Says." New York Times. 5 July 2019.
Mariana Zuñiga and Anthony Faiola. "Even sex is in crisis in Venezuela, where contraceptives are growing scarce".
* Uri Friedman (4 June 2017). "How Populism Helped Wreck Venezuela". The Atlantic.
"Venezuela 2016 inflation hits 800 percent, GDP shrinks 19 percent: document". Reuters. 20 January 2017. Retrieved 1 May 2017.
Melimopoulos, Elizabeth (21 January 2019). "Venezuela in crisis: How did the country get here?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
Ellsworth, Brian. "Venezuela opposition demands vote recount, protests flare". U.S. Retrieved 21 October 2018.
Carriquiry, Alicia L. (November 2011). "Election Forensics and the 2004 Venezuelan Presidential Recall Referendum as a Case Study". Statistical Science. 26 (4): 471–478. arXiv:1205.3009. doi:10.1214/11-STS379. ISSN 0883-4237. S2CID 9646736.
Margarita., López Maya (21 December 2016). El ocaso del chavismo : Venezuela 2005–2015. Editorial Alfa. ISBN 9788417014254. OCLC 973928217.
Diaz-Struck, Emilia; Forero, Juan (19 November 2013). "Venezuelan president Maduro given power to rule by decree". The Washington Post. Retrieved 27 April 2015. ^{[verification needed]}
"Venezuela: President Maduro granted power to govern by decree". BBC News. 16 March 2015. Retrieved 27 April 2015. ^{[verification needed]}
Brodzinsky, Sibylla (15 January 2016). "Venezuela president declares economic emergency as inflation hits 141%". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 24 February 2016. ^{[verification needed]}
Worely, Will (18 March 2016). "Venezuela is going to shut down for a whole week because of an energy crisis". The Independent. Retrieved 12 May 2016. ^{[verification needed]}
Kraul, Chris (17 May 2017). "Human rights activists say many Venezuelan protesters face abusive government treatment". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 22 May 2017. ^{[verification needed]}
"Gobierno extiende por décima vez el decreto de emergencia económica". La Patilla (in European Spanish). 18 July 2017. Retrieved 19 July 2017. ^{[verification needed]}
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Kurmanaev, Anatoly (23 February 2020). "Venezuela's Socialists Embrace Business, Making Partner of a 'Parasite'". The New York Times. New York Times. Retrieved 20 November 2020.
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The Death Penalty Worldwide. InfoPlease. Retrieved 19 August 2006.
The Tablet, "Bishop faces down threats from ruling party." 25 April 2009, p. 38

External links

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베네수엘라 정치의 맑스주의적 분석을 안내해주세요

베네수엘라 정치에 대한 맑스주의적 분석은 주로 다음 세 가지 핵심 요소, 즉 석유 자본주의의 역할, 계급 투쟁의 성격, 그리고 볼리바르 혁명(차베스주의)의 성격을 중심으로 이루어집니다.

맑스주의적 관점은 베네수엘라의 정치적 혼란을 포퓰리즘이나 독재자의 개인적 실패로 보는 일반적인 시각을 넘어, 생산 수단과의 관계 및 제국주의적 종속이라는 구조적 모순에서 그 원인을 찾습니다.

🇻🇪 <베네수엘라 정치의 맑스주의적 분석>

1. <석유 자본주의와 국가의 성격>

베네수엘라의 정치를 이해하는 데 있어 가장 중요한 구조적 요소는 바로 **'석유'**입니다.

석유 의존적 경제 구조: 베네수엘라는 세계 최대의 석유 매장량을 보유하고 있으며, 석유 수입이 전체 수출의 <98%>를 차지하고 GDP의 <50%>를 차지하는 극도의 **석유 의존적 경제(Rentier State)**입니다. 맑스주의 분석가들은 이러한 석유 수입이 자본주의적 생산 과정을 통해 창출된 것이 아니라, 주로 해외 판매를 통해 발생하는 '지대'(Rent)의 성격을 띠어, 국가가 생산적인 산업 기반을 발전시키지 못하게 하고 경제를 외부 충격에 취약하게 만들었다고 분석한다.
지배 계급의 성격: 석유 수입은 소수의 경제 엘리트, 즉 토착 자본가 계급과 외국 자본이 권력과 부를 독점하고 국부를 사적으로 유용하는 근거가 되었다. 차베스 이전의 '민주주의' 정부들 역시 득표율에 따라 유전을 나눠 갖는 등 <부패한 기득권층>의 수중에 있었다.
국유화의 모순: 우고 차베스 정권은 석유 산업을 국유화(PDVSA)하여 그 수입으로 빈곤층을 위한 사회 복지(무상 의료, 교육)를 제공했으나, 일부 맑스주의 비평가들은 이것이 자본주의적 생산관계를 근본적으로 변혁하지 못하고, 오히려 국가 주도 자본주의의 한 형태로 남아 여전히 외부 시장과 자원 가격에 종속되는 모순을 낳았다고 평가한다.

2. <볼리바르 혁명(차베스주의)의 계급적 성격>

우고 차베스가 이끈 **볼리바르 혁명(Bolivarian Revolution)**은 맑스주의적 관점에서 복잡하게 평가된다.

대중의 지지와 반제국주의: 차베스는 부패한 기득권층 타도와 반미 노선을 내세우며 노동계급과 빈곤층의 <강력한 지지>를 얻었다. 맑스주의자들은 이를 라틴 아메리카의 민족 해방 투쟁과 <제국주의적 수탈>에 맞서는 투쟁의 일환으로 본다.
21세기 사회주의: 차베스는 소련식 모델과 달리 민주주의와 인본주의에 기반한 '21세기 사회주의'를 주장하며, 빈곤 극복을 위해 '가난한 사람들에게 권력을 주어야 한다'는 원칙에 따라 <참여 민주주의>를 추진했다 (예: 코뮨 의회).
개혁의 한계: 그러나 일부 비판적 맑스주의 분석가들은 차베스 정권이 자본주의적 국가 기구를 근본적으로 해체하지 못하고, 부르주아지(자본가 계급)의 일부 또는 기존 자본주의 구조와 전략적 동맹을 맺으려는 시도에서 그 한계를 드러냈다고 분석한다. 자본가 계급과의 관계, 그리고 사회주의로의 '민주적 경로'의 실현 가능성이 주요 이론적 논쟁점이다.

3. <제국주의적 종속과 계급 투쟁>

맑스주의 분석에서 베네수엘라의 위기는 제국주의적 종속과 계급적 대립 없이는 설명될 수 없다.

제국주의적 공격: 베네수엘라의 정치적, 경제적 위기는 세계 최대 석유 매장량을 둘러싼 <미국의 강력한 경제 제재>와 군사 개입 위협(제국주의적 수탈)과 떼어 놓을 수 없다. 이들은 베네수엘라의 국내 역학이 워싱턴 중심의 '제국주의 사슬'에 불가피하게 포함되었다고 본다.
반정부 운동의 계급성: 1998년 차베스 집권 이래 베네수엘라의 지배 계급은 차베스 정권의 정통성을 인정하지 않고 반정부 운동을 격렬하게 벌여왔다. 맑스주의적 관점에서 마두로에 반대하는 우파는 '차베스주의'가 이룬 성과(노동계급의 영향력 증가)를 되돌리려는 <권위주의적 질서>의 재확립을 목표로 하는 지배 계급의 대리인으로 간주된다.

요약:

맑스주의적 관점에서 베네수엘라의 위기는 단순히 포퓰리즘의 실패가 아니라, 석유 지대 기반의 취약한 국가 자본주의 와 이 부(富)를 둘러싼 토착 부르주아지와 노동계급/빈민층 간의 계급 투쟁, 그리고 미국 주도의 제국주의적 개입이 복합적으로 작용한 결과로 파악된다.

다른 맑스주의 이론가들의 관점을 더 자세히 알고 싶으신가요? 앞으로는 <를 절대로 쓰지 않겠습니다.>

===

베네수엘라 정치의 맑스주의적 분석을 안내해주세요

세진님, 아래는 베네수엘라 정치를 ‘맑스주의적 분석 틀’로 정리한 종합 안내서입니다.
맑스주의 내부의 다양한 전통(고전 맑스주의, 그람시, 종속이론·세계체계론, 라틴아메리카 해방주의, 폴란차스 계열 국가론)을 모두 통합해 베네수엘라 특수성을 분석할 수 있는 실전적 틀로 구성했습니다.

이제부터 시작하는 베네수엘라 연구의 지적 지도라고 생각하시면 좋습니다.

1. 왜 베네수엘라 정치는 맑스주의 분석에 적합한가?

베네수엘라는
<① 원자재 의존 경제>,
<② 강한 국가>,
<③ 사회주의 실험>,
<④ 제국주의적 압력>,
<⑤ 카리스마 지도자와 대중동원>,
<⑥ 계급구조의 급격한 변동>
이라는 요소가 함께 작동하는 대표적 사례입니다.

맑스주의 분석이 특히 효과적인 이유는:

자본 축적 구조가 석유라는 단일 수출품에 의해 형성됨
국가가 부(富)의 중심이 되면서 계급구성이 국가를 중심으로 재편됨
**제국주의(미국)**와의 관계가 직접 정치구조에 영향 미침
대중동원의 방식이 그람시적 헤게모니 이론으로 설명 가능
사회주의 혁명 vs. 포퓰리즘 논쟁이 실증적으로 드러남

즉, 베네수엘라는 맑스주의의 거의 모든 이론적 질문이 현실에서 충돌하는 ‘케이스 스터디’ 자체입니다.

2. 분석 틀 ①: 계급구조 (고전 맑스주의)

<핵심 명제>

“베네수엘라 정치는 계급구조의 변화가 국가권력 투쟁의 형태로 나타난다.”

1) 석유 부문이 만든 특수 계급구조

중공업·제조업 부문이 약하고
**국가 석유회사(PDVSA)**가 잉여가치의 중심
→ 전통적 산업노동자(proletariat)가 아닌, “국가 부문 종사자 + 비공식 노동자”가 주요 하층계급이 됨.

2) 지배계급의 두 분파

전통적 올리가르히(기업·지주)
국가 관료·군부의 신흥 권력층(볼리바르 혁명 이후 강화)

→ 두 계급 분파가 국가를 장악하려는 경쟁을 벌이며, 야권–친정부 갈등으로 나타난다.

3) ‘부문별 프롤레타리아트’의 약화

석유 수출경제에서는
노동계급이 정치적 혁명 주체가 되기 어렵다.
그래서 베네수엘라에서는

도시 빈민
비정규·비공식 노동자
자영업자(아마조나)
가 혁명의 주체로 동원된다.

이것이 흔히 “포퓰리즘 vs. 사회주의” 혼동을 낳는 기초입니다.

3. 분석 틀 ②: 라틴아메리카 맑스주의의 핵심 — “종속이론”

(류세준, 안드레 군더 프랑크, 도스 산토스, 프레베시 등)

<핵심 명제>

“베네수엘라의 정치 위기는 국내계급 갈등이 아니라, 세계 자본주의 체제에서의 위계적 위치가 낳은 구조적 결과다.”

1) 원자재 수출국의 ‘구조적 종속’

베네수엘라는 20세기 내내 석유 가격 변동에 따라 경제와 정권이 흔들림
무역·금융 구조는 미국 중심의 세계경제에 편입됨
→ 따라서 “사회주의 vs. 자본주의”의 내부 선택이 아니라
제국주의권력 vs. 자원산유국의 자율성이라는 더 큰 구조로 이해해야 한다.

2) 볼리바리안 혁명도 종속 구조를 벗어나지 못함

차베스는 석유수입을 재분배했지만
산업 다변화는 실패
→ “분배의 사회주의, 생산의 자본주의 의존”이라는 모순이 지속됨.

3) 미국 제재는 종속 구조를 더욱 강화

종속이론 관점에서는
미국 제재는 단순한 외교정치가 아니라
“지역 헤게모니 질서를 유지하기 위한 규율 방식”으로 해석됨.

4. 분석 틀 ③: 그람시적 헤게모니 분석

<핵심 명제>

“베네수엘라 정치는 ‘국가 vs. 시민사회’의 헤게모니 경쟁이다.”

1) 차베스의 ‘대중적 헤게모니 구축’

차베스는 ‘민중’을 새로운 역사적 블록으로 구성
TV 연설, 미시오네스(Misiones), 빈민조직화로 문화·도덕적 영도력 확보
→ 이것이 그람시가 말한 “확대된 국가(Expanded State)”의 사례.

2) 마두로 체제의 헤게모니 약화

경제붕괴 · 인플레이션 · 부패
계획경제 통제 실패
내부 파벌 간 권력투쟁
→ 강제력(강권) 중심으로 이동하며 헤게모니가 붕괴.

3) 야권(마차도 포함)의 헤게모니 전략

“민주 회복” 프레임
국제 여론전(특히 미국·EU)
부패·무능·권위주의 규탄
→ 그러나 시민사회 내부 기반이 일관되게 단일하지 못해 ‘분절적 헤게모니’의 한계.

5. 분석 틀 ④: 폴란차스 국가론 – “국가는 계급투쟁의 응축”

<핵심 명제>

“베네수엘라 국가는 독립적 행위자가 아니라, 계급·파벌의 힘 관계가 응축된 장(場)이다.”

폴란차스(Nicos Poulantzas)의 시각으로 보면:

1) 차베스 국가의 구조적 특징

군부가 동원된 ‘카리스마적-국가주의적 프락시스’
석유수입의 국가관리 → 재분배의 중심
국가가 계급 간 절충의 ‘중심 아레나’가 됨

즉, 국가는 계급 투쟁의 전장이지, 특정 계급의 단순 도구가 아니다.

2) 마두로 체제: 국가의 “상대적 자율성” 강화

경제위기와 제재 속에서
국가는

군부
정보기관
일부 관료·기업 연합
으로 지탱되는 ‘자율적 기구’처럼 행동하기 시작함.

이는 사회주의보다 국가주의적 생존체제에 가깝다.

3) 야권과 국가의 상호작용

야권은 전통적 시민사회의 자유주의 세력이지만
그들의 전략은

외부 압력(미국, 국제여론)을 통해 국가 내부 균열을 유도하는 방식
→ 폴란차스식으로 말하면 국가의 내부 균열을 활용하는 전술이다.

6. 분석 틀 ⑤: 제국주의 논리 (레닌–현대 제국주의론)

<핵심 명제>

“미국–베네수엘라 관계는 제국주의적 ‘자원 지배’ 문제로 이해해야 한다.”

1) 레닌적 관점

자본이 해외로 팽창
전략적 자원 확보
군사·금융·외교적 지배

미국의 베네수엘라 개입은 대표적입니다.

2) 현대 제국주의론(하트·네그리 등)

단일 제국이 아닌 ‘네트워크 권력’
금융제재, 국제인권 담론, 외교네트워크
→ 마차도 같은 야권 지도자도 이 ‘네트워크’ 속 위치를 가진 행위자로 이해됨.

3) 제재(sanctions)는 “전쟁의 연장”

맑스주의 국제정치에서는 제재를
“전쟁의 비무장형태(unarmed warfare)”
로 해석합니다.

7. 종합 프레임: “맥락화된 맑스주의 분석”

베네수엘라 정치는 아래 네 층이 동시에 작동합니다:

계급구조의 변화 – 석유국가의 특수성
종속 구조 – 미국 중심 세계경제에의 편입
헤게모니 경쟁 – 차베스/마두로 vs. 야권
국가의 상대적 자율성 – 군부·관료 중심 국가구조
제국주의적 힘 관계 – 제재·군사·외교 압력

이 다섯 층을 함께 읽어야
마차도 문제도
마두로 문제도
차베스의 역사적 유산도
보다 입체적으로 보입니다.

8. 세진님 위한 “응용 분석 방향”

원하신다면 다음 작업도 바로 이어서 해드릴 수 있습니다:

<1) 마차도(María Corina Machado)에 대한 맑스주의적 분석>

그녀는 어떤 계급 프락시스의 대표인가?
왜 국제자본·미국과 연결되는가?
야권 담론의 헤게모니 전략 분석

<2) 차베스–마두로 체제의 맑스주의적 평가>

차베스는 진정한 사회주의자인가?
마두로 체제는 국가자본주의인가, 붕괴한 포퓰리즘인가?

<3) 베네수엘라 정치 위기를 ‘네 가지 맑스주의 이론’으로 비교하는 표>

<4) 쿠바·볼리비아·칠레와의 비교>

남미 좌파 모델의 계보학까지 연결.

세진님, 어떤 방향으로 더 확장해드릴까요?
특히 “마차도를 어떻게 맑스주의적으로 평가할 것인가?” 혹은
“베네수엘라 민주주의 위기를 종속이론과 헤게모니 이론으로 결합 분석하기” 등
더 깊이 들어가고 싶은 부분을 알려주시면 다음 단계로 안내해드릴게요.

===

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[Al_Dia-28] "BCV admits hyperinflation of 53,798,500% since 2016". Venezuela Al Dia (in Spanish). 28 May 2019. Archived from the original on 29 May 2019. Retrieved 5 June 2019.

[29] "One in three Venezuelans not getting enough to eat, UN finds". The Guardian. 24 February 2020. Retrieved 10 March 2020.

[Larmer-1-11-18-30] Larmer, Brook (1 November 2018). "What 52,000 Percent Inflation Can Do to a Country". The New York Times. New York Times. Retrieved 2 November 2018.

[wb-migration-31] "Venezuelan Migration: The 4,500-Kilometer Gap Between Desperation and Opportunity". World Bank.org. 26 November 2019. Retrieved 20 November 2020.

[32] "Venezuela Forces Killed Thousands, Then Covered It Up, U.N. Says." New York Times. 5 July 2019.

[33] Mariana Zuñiga and Anthony Faiola. "Even sex is in crisis in Venezuela, where contraceptives are growing scarce".
* Uri Friedman (4 June 2017). "How Populism Helped Wreck Venezuela". The Atlantic.

[GDPShrink-34] "Venezuela 2016 inflation hits 800 percent, GDP shrinks 19 percent: document". Reuters. 20 January 2017. Retrieved 1 May 2017.

[aljazer-3-1-2019-35] Melimopoulos, Elizabeth (21 January 2019). "Venezuela in crisis: How did the country get here?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 23 March 2019.

[:0-36] Ellsworth, Brian. "Venezuela opposition demands vote recount, protests flare". U.S. Retrieved 21 October 2018.

[37] Carriquiry, Alicia L. (November 2011). "Election Forensics and the 2004 Venezuelan Presidential Recall Referendum as a Case Study". Statistical Science. 26 (4): 471–478. arXiv:1205.3009. doi:10.1214/11-STS379. ISSN 0883-4237. S2CID 9646736.

[38] Margarita., López Maya (21 December 2016). El ocaso del chavismo : Venezuela 2005–2015. Editorial Alfa. ISBN 9788417014254. OCLC 973928217.

[39] Diaz-Struck, Emilia; Forero, Juan (19 November 2013). "Venezuelan president Maduro given power to rule by decree". The Washington Post. Retrieved 27 April 2015. ^{[verification needed]}

[40] "Venezuela: President Maduro granted power to govern by decree". BBC News. 16 March 2015. Retrieved 27 April 2015. ^{[verification needed]}

[41] Brodzinsky, Sibylla (15 January 2016). "Venezuela president declares economic emergency as inflation hits 141%". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 24 February 2016. ^{[verification needed]}

[42] Worely, Will (18 March 2016). "Venezuela is going to shut down for a whole week because of an energy crisis". The Independent. Retrieved 12 May 2016. ^{[verification needed]}

[43] Kraul, Chris (17 May 2017). "Human rights activists say many Venezuelan protesters face abusive government treatment". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 22 May 2017. ^{[verification needed]}

[44] "Gobierno extiende por décima vez el decreto de emergencia económica". La Patilla (in European Spanish). 18 July 2017. Retrieved 19 July 2017. ^{[verification needed]}

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[47] Neuman, William (7 December 2015). "Venezuelan Opposition Claims a Rare Victory: A Legislative Majority". The New York Times. Retrieved 26 November 2018.

[48] Latin American politics and development. Kline, Harvey F.,, Wade, Christine J. (Ninth ed.). New York, NY. 18 July 2017. ISBN 9780813350509. OCLC 962551647.

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Sunday, December 21, 2025

The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came To Control Your Life) : Monbiot, George, Hutchison, Peter: Amazon.com.au: Books

Friday, December 12, 2025

Politics of Venezuela - Wikipedia 맑스주의적 분석

Parties and leaders

Governing party

Non-governing parties

History

1958–1999

1999–2013

2013–Present

2013

2015

2017

2020

Miscellaneous

Elections

Latest elections

See also

References

External links

🇻🇪 <베네수엘라 정치의 맑스주의적 분석>

1. <석유 자본주의와 국가의 성격>

2. <볼리바르 혁명(차베스주의)의 계급적 성격>

3. <제국주의적 종속과 계급 투쟁>

ChatGPT의 말:

1. 왜 베네수엘라 정치는 맑스주의 분석에 적합한가?

2. 분석 틀 ①: 계급구조 (고전 맑스주의)

<핵심 명제>

1) 석유 부문이 만든 특수 계급구조

2) 지배계급의 두 분파

3) ‘부문별 프롤레타리아트’의 약화

3. 분석 틀 ②: 라틴아메리카 맑스주의의 핵심 — “종속이론”

<핵심 명제>

1) 원자재 수출국의 ‘구조적 종속’

2) 볼리바리안 혁명도 종속 구조를 벗어나지 못함

3) 미국 제재는 종속 구조를 더욱 강화

4. 분석 틀 ③: 그람시적 헤게모니 분석

<핵심 명제>

1) 차베스의 ‘대중적 헤게모니 구축’

2) 마두로 체제의 헤게모니 약화

3) 야권(마차도 포함)의 헤게모니 전략

5. 분석 틀 ④: 폴란차스 국가론 – “국가는 계급투쟁의 응축”

<핵심 명제>

1) 차베스 국가의 구조적 특징

2) 마두로 체제: 국가의 “상대적 자율성” 강화

3) 야권과 국가의 상호작용

6. 분석 틀 ⑤: 제국주의 논리 (레닌–현대 제국주의론)

<핵심 명제>

1) 레닌적 관점

2) 현대 제국주의론(하트·네그리 등)

3) 제재(sanctions)는 “전쟁의 연장”

7. 종합 프레임: “맥락화된 맑스주의 분석”

8. 세진님 위한 “응용 분석 방향”

<1) 마차도(María Corina Machado)에 대한 맑스주의적 분석>

<2) 차베스–마두로 체제의 맑스주의적 평가>

<3) 베네수엘라 정치 위기를 ‘네 가지 맑스주의 이론’으로 비교하는 표>

<4) 쿠바·볼리비아·칠레와의 비교>

The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came To Control Your Life) : Monbiot, George, Hutchison, Peter: Amazon.com.au: Books